A Primary Task of the Manager - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 8 Words: 2334 Downloads: 2 Date added: 2017/09/21 Category Advertising Essay Type Argumentative essay Did you like this example? DECISION MAKING- A PRIMARY TASK OF THE MANAGER As the term implies, decision making is the process of selection of a course of action from among alternatives. All decisions made in an environment of at least some uncertainty. However, the degree will vary from relative certainty to great uncertainty. There are certain risks involved in making decisions. In a situation involving certainty, people are reasonably sure about what will happen when they make a decision. The information is available and is considered to be reliable, and the cause and effect relationships are known. In a situation of uncertainty, on the other hand, people have only a meager database, they do not know whether or not the data are reliable, and they are very unsure about whether or not the situation may change. In a risk situation, factual information may exist but it may be incomplete. To improve decision making, one may estimate the objective probabilities of an outcome by using, for example, mathe matical models. On the other hand, subjective probability, based on judgement and experience, may be used. Fortunately, there are a number of tools available that help managers make more effective decisions. All intelligent decision makers dealing with uncertainty like to know the size and nature of the risk they are taking in choosing a course of action. One of the deficiencies in using the traditional approaches of operations research for problem solving is that many of the data used in a model are merely estimates and others are based on probabilities. The ordinary practice is to have staff specialists come up with â€Å"best estimates†. However new techniques have been developed that gives a more precise view of risk. Virtually every decision is based on the interaction of a number of important variables, many of which have an element of uncertainty but, perhaps,a fairly high degree of probability. Thus, the wisdom of launching a new product might depend on a number of critical variables the cost of introducing the product, the cost of producing it, the capital investment that will be required, the price that can be set for the product, the size of the potential market, and the share of the total market that it will represent. Manager’s main job is decision making and quite often they have to decide on what is to be done, who is to do it, when, where, and so on and so forth. The first step in decision making after having decided our goals and our planning premises is to develop all the possible ways of reaching the goals. If one thinks hard enough more than one way to achieve the goals can be identified. If you cannot find more than one way to the goals then I would say probably you have not thought hard enough. This is because almost always alternatives exist. There is a good statement I remember on this occasion-I quote the unknown â€Å" If there seems to be only one way of doing a thing, that way is probably the wrong way. â €  Now you can understand the limitations and boundaries within which the manager has to act. On the way to achieving the desired goals there would be more often than not something that would stand in the way, obstructing the path. This something that stands in the way accomplishing a desired goal is a limiting factor. The principle of limiting factor states as follows: By recognizing and overcoming those factors that stand critically in the way of a goal, the best alternative course of action can be selected. Steps In Decision-making Process Let us now look at the process of decision making. Having found many alternatives to the goal, the next logical step is to decide and select one of them for adoption. Obviously, you need to evaluate them find the most appropriate one for implementation. In evaluating the alternatives, the managers are likely to do so: Quantitative Factors– 1. The factors that can be measured in numerical terms, 2. Qualitative Factors–fact ors that are intangible and difficult to measure numerically, 3. marginal analysis–that is to compare additional revenues arising from additional costs 4. cost effectiveness analysis–the process of selecting the best ratio of benefits and costs. After having evaluated the alternatives the job is to select one of them. Here the managers can use three basic approaches: 1. Experience, 2. Experimentation, and 3. Research and analysis Experience There seems to be no greater teacher than experience. But what is experience? It is not the number of years spent in a business. Many managers do not learn by their mistakes. If so what is the benefit of experience? Mostly managers either do not or fail to identify the cause for their failures. Another facet is the lessons of experience may be entirely inapplicable to the new problems. Experimentation Experiments are one way of testing a method. It is probably the most expensive one. Besides, unlike in science, there is no guaran tee of repetition of the results. But one should be encouraged to do experiments-to try the various alternatives and see which is best. In view of the high cost involved, I suggest it should be used only after considering other alternatives and its implications. Research and Analysis When a major decision has to be taken, research and analysis is the most effective technique. One of the most comprehensive research and analysis approaches to decision making is operations research. We will discuss the same in detail at later. Types of Managerial Decisions As a manager one would need to take decisions under different situations. We can separately identify two different kinds of decision making situations. The kind of decision used for routine and repetitive work and the other is new, unexpected and non-repetitive one. The earlier one is termed as programmed decision and other non-programmed decision. You should understand that the decisions are not always necessarily be either of the two; it can be a combination of both. Most of the strategic decisions however, are non-programmed decisions and involve a certain amount of risk. Before a non-programmed decision is made the manager should calculate the amount of risk involved in the decision known as Risk Analysis, look at the major alternatives available-Decision Trees. The decision made by the manager would also be dependent on his attitude towards risk taking and this is called preference theory or utility theory. Decision making support systems use modern day gadgets and techniques to help the manager arrive at a decision effectively. Management invariably encounters situations in which uncomfortable decisions must be made. In some cases, the difficulty may be that, although certain alternative choices are clear, the consequences of these choices are not readily apparent. One possible tool for a manager in such a situation is decision tree analysis. A decision tree is a graphical diagram consisting o f nodes and branches. The nodes are of two types. The first is a rectangle that represents the decision to be made. The branches emanating from decision nodes are the alternative choices with which the manager is faced. One and only one alternative can be implemented. The second type of node is a circle. Circles represent chance nodes. That is, the alternatives emanating from chance nodes have some element of uncertainty as to whether or not they will occur. The primary benefit of a decision tree is that it provides a visual representation of the choices facing the manager. Analytic Considerations The first task of the manager is to identify the decision that needs to be made based upon a given situation. Next, the manager must think of all the possible alternative actions that could be implemented which would solve the problem. These alternatives are connected to the decision node as straight lines emanating from the node. The next step is to identify all the possible consequenc es that could occur as a result of an alternative being implemented. This process is accomplished for each and every alternative action identified in the previous step. Since these consequences have some element of uncertainty as to whether or not they will occur, the manager needs some way in which to evaluate the likelihood that they will (may) occur. The end goal is to obtain probabilities as to the likelihood of each consequence occurring. The best process to obtain these probabilities is to use past experience of similar outcomes. But, often there is no past experience of similar outcomes available to the manager. In these cases, the best tool is to utilize the collective wisdom of experts as to how likely it is that the particular consequence will occur in the future. Using an appropriate consensus building technique, estimates from a panel of experts can be combined or averaged to create a probability of the likelihood of the occurrence of each and every consequence. Th e only requirement is that the sum of the probabilities of the set of consequences emanating from a chance node must equal one. The next step is to evaluate the end result of each possible alternative in concert with the consequences identified for each alternative. This step results in a monetary figure that would be obtained if this course of action were implemented. This step is accomplished for each possible alternative. Finally, the entire tree is evaluated by employing a technique known as mathematical expectation in order to select the most beneficial alternative. Product Planning at Gerber Gerber Products, Inc. , the well-known baby products company, recently used decision tree analysis in deciding whether to continue using the plastic known as poly-vinyl chloride or, more commonly, PVC. The situation involved a number of organizations including the environmental group Greenpeace, the U. S. Consumer Products Safety Commission, the toy and plastics industries, and the gene ral public. PVC is a composite plastic material used in numerous household, commercial, and medical products including food storage containers, toys, and medical tubing. To make PVC soft and pliable, a chemical plasticizer known as phthalates is added to soften the plastic. In the latter half of 1998, Greenpeace announced that it had conducted scientific testing on phthalates and found them to be carcinogenic in lab rats. Further, Greenpeace claimed that the chemical leeches from the plastic over time and voiced particular concern with, products that were aimed at small children and used to suck on or chew on. Although phthalates have been used in plastic for over 30 years, and there are no known cases of phthalates causing health problems, Greenpeace’s press release was strategically timed to coincide with the Christmas toy season, thereby guaranteeing maximum media coverage. As expected, it was immediately picked up by the television networks and, in fact, the ABC show 2 0/20 did an entire segment on the possible health risks of phthalates. The problem grew worse for Gerber when the media focused specifically on products made for oral use by children. Gerber, the largest producer of nipples, pacifiers, and feeding products in the U. S. , produced some 75 different products containing phthalates and was under considerable pressure to respond publicly to the investigation. Decisions Gerber management had to evaluate all of the current information, weigh the consequences of each action, and proceed on the most prudent course to insure as limited an interruption in business as possible. Gerber knew that a vast body of scientific evidence indicates that phthalates are completely safe. However, once the Greenpeace announcement was publicized, the Consumer Product Safety Commission was spurred to issue a press release expressing new doubts. As the focus gradually fell on items children put in their mouths, and large toy manufacturers like Mattel and Disney began to distance themselves from phthalates, the spotlight of the CPSC fell squarely on Gerber. A month before Christmas, the CPSC informed Gerber they would issue a press release advising parents of the potential dangers of phthalates, and Gerber would be named as one of the companies involved. This is the point at which Gerber implemented a decision tree. Gerber basically faced two choices, neither of which was particularly beneficial. The firm could be reactive, wait for the announcement, and gauge consumer response before deciding on a course of action, or it could be proactive and aggressively pursue resolution of the problem regardless of the public’s response to the report. The CSPC report suggested the agency would either issue a recall of all products containing phthalates (shown on the decision tree as the unfavorable response), or they would issue a report merely expressing concern in which case the public response would be minimal (shown on the decision tree as favorable). Gerber projected eight possible outcomes on its decision tree. If the firm reacted proactively by discontinuing use of all phthalates, and the CSPC report simply issued a warning, Gerber predicted an 80 percent chance that the public would react favorably to Gerber’s responsiveness causing sales to increase over competitors who reacted more slowly. A potential nationwide revenue increase of $l million was entered into the decision tree. Given a proactive response and a favorable CSPC report, Gerber also recorded a 20 percent chance that sales ould decline by $1 million due to the sensationalistic nature of the press coverage. If the CSPC report is negative and a recall is issued, Gerber predicted 25 percent likelihood that it could preserve current sales through a proactive response. On the other hand, the firm placed a 75 percent probability that a recall would hurt sales by $1. 25 million. Four more alternatives were predicted in the event that Gerbe r waited for the CSPC report before taking action. With a favorable report and a delayed response, there was thought to be a 25 percent chance that sales would remain flat, along with a 75 percent chance that sales would decline by $2 million. The worst case scenario is if Gerber remains passive and the CSPC report calls for a recall. In that case, Gerber optimistically predicted a 20 percent probability that it could still increase sales by taking advantage of companies who were less prepared for the report and actually gain approximately $. 5 million. However, it was considered an 80 percent probability that significant volume would be lost. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "A Primary Task of the Manager" essay for you Create order

Sophocles Antigone - Fate And Power Essay - 1812 Words

Sophocles’ Antigone - Fate and Power Greek tragedies are noted for containing many powerful themes. Such themes like fate play an important role in many tragedies. Character lives or stories have a set end and throughout the story, there are subtle or noticeable hints of what will become of the character and when will it occur. Whether it be the protagonist, antagonist, or another character, they might be able to recognize their fate and respond by either accepting it or fighting against it. Power is another important theme in Greek tragedies. Power has a tendency to corrupt and blind characters from doing the right thing. Many tragic characters corrupted by the power they held suffer terrible fates from not making the right choices. Sophocles’ Greek tragedy, Antigone, was no exception to this, as fate and power are central themes in the story and play prominent roles in the respective downfall of the play’s two major characters, Antigone and Creon. From the very beginning of the play, Antigone’s fate is essentially laid out when she confides to her sister, Ismene, that she plans to bury their brother, Polyneices and why it is necessary to do so. This action is in direct defiance of the edict set by their uncle, Creon, but Antigone nonetheless accepts her fate. She stands by what she did wholeheartedly and accepts the consequences without a moment’s hesitation. While fate greatly affected Antigone, power and fate play a great role in what becomes of Creon by the play’sShow MoreRelatedBiography of Sophocles Essay1496 Words   |  6 PagesBiography of Sophocles Sophocles was born near Athens, in the small town of Colonus, around 495 BC. His ninety-year life span coincided with the rise and fall of the Athenian Golden age. The son of Sophillus, a wealthy armor maker, Sophocles was provided with the best traditional aristocratic education available in Athens (Page 3). 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Birdsong Man and Stephen Free Essays

Birdsong Essay Sebastian Faulks shows us many horrors of World War One by using language and structure of the novel. For example this shows the imagery of the horrors of war at the hospital when Stephen got injured and what happened with the boy. Faulks starts of with Stephen Wraysford and how he is coming back to life but with pain. We will write a custom essay sample on Birdsong: Man and Stephen or any similar topic only for you Order Now His pain is nothing compared to the man next to him, the man apparently could â€Å"visualize the pain† also its says he could see it hovering over him this I think could relate to two thing either his pain or the mans spirit. Faulks describes the imagery for us how bad it is- â€Å"His body decomposing as he lay there, like those that hung on the wire going from red to black before they crumbled into the earth leaving only septic spores†- this shows us the horrors of what war does to people. Also Faulks uses this one man to describe the many other men that go through this in the war. Faulks uses descriptive language and we can visualise the boy when â€Å"His mouth was pulled open and his neck were stretched† and also â€Å"The skin of his cheeks and forehead was marked with bluish-violet patches. His eyes were oozing, as though with acute conjunctives†- shows us the graphic imagery of the boys eyes. Stephen tells us in about this boy, not knowing who he is and having no relation to Stephen at all this shows that Stephen has sympathy and thoughts about what these soldiers go through I think he is comparing on how lucky he is that his pain was very minor to the ones that other people s uffer. Stephen describes the boy’s body â€Å"The soft skin on the armpits and inner thighs was covered in huge, raw blisters†. Makes the reader visualise and actually see what Stephen is seeing. On page 187 it tells us that the boys voice came back to Stephen and â€Å"He begged to die†- this shows us the effect on how the damage and the pain that the boy actually must be going through. Faulks also shows us how hard the nurses job is and how her love can take over her job† Impotently, she held both her arms wide in a gesture of motherly love, as this would comfort him. † Stephen hopes that the boy would die soon, it is all so reverse he should be praying for him to live soon, but seeing and hearing the agony the boy is going through death would be more peaceful. On page 188 Faulks describes the boy the last time before he dies and we can see and imagine how his condition would be like for example-â€Å"He lay motion-less, trailing his raw skin. His infected lungs began to burble and froth with yellow fluid† Faulks shows Stephen with no emotion or sympathy for the boy no remorse â€Å"Stephen prayed that the boy would die† the nurse was the opposite to what he was like she was â€Å"pale, shocked, then burst into shuddering tears. She has sympathy for the boy and some feeling of lost. The next horror incident is when they go over the top to attack and Faulks uses emotional horror in the letters when they write back home. Faulks shows in Michael Wiers letter is formal like he says â€Å"Don’t worry about me, please. It is warm enough. †-shows he is covering up reality and not showing or telling the real truth because even if he does they would be able to understand it. And he says that â€Å"May your prayers be with the men who will go over the top†- shows respect and feelings to all the other soldiers. Stephens letter to Isabelle shows how lonely he is and what he has experienced How to cite Birdsong: Man and Stephen, Papers

Certainty vs. Doubt free essay sample

I believe the dispute between the two virtues, certainty and doubt, is very controversial. Despite the clear sides that people have fixed themselves to, there are pros and cons to both. A person’s doubt can cloud their judgment. Yet it can also aid them in making the better decision, by questioning and eliminating the inferior options. On the other hand, a person’s certainty can blind them from seeing the truth. Regardless of these cons, both are necessary in the everyday choices of life. Isaiah Stock, an APLAC student at University of North Carolina, said, â€Å"Think of certainty and doubt as parts of an automobile. Certainty is considered to be the accelerator, while doubt is the steering wheel. You can get nowhere without driving certainty—but without steering through the impediments in your way, you will surely crash and burn. † I consider this to be a very acceptable metaphor of the balanced relationship between certainty and doubt. We will write a custom essay sample on Certainty vs. Doubt or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page An excess of either, on the other hand, is detrimental to one’s wellbeing. I t is necessary to balance certainty and doubt in order to accomplish all of one’s life goals. But I believe that, because doubt is so highly misconstrued, doubt is more necessary in the process of making decisions. Doubt is often viewed as a negative idea in our modern society, but in reality is very beneficially, when used correctly. It is not completely contradictive of certainty, but more somewhere in between the two. The World English Dictionary’s definition of doubt is â€Å"a lack of belief or conviction about something. † We should accept the fact that doubt is a part of us, as a human race, because it is part of our nature. We are curious from birth, and to question anything and everything that we want to know more about is perfectly acceptable. I feel that it’s more in the levels of doubt that we use, that we should start to feel worried. Take building a house of cards, for example. Every card we add brings the risk of sending the whole tower tumbling over, but that is a risk we have to take, in order to achieve our goal. â€Å"I will doubt everything that can possibly be doubted, and if anything is left, then it will be absolutely certain†¦ Then I will consider what it is about this certainty that places it beyond doubt. (Descartes). Descartes, in my opinion, is yet another, if not extreme, example of the beneficial effects of doubt. He believed that man should not believe in anything that the smallest reason to doubt. In other words, anything that we believed to be true was untrue, until proven undeniable. His theory, dubbed the Doubt Theory, stated that everything we believe is true comes from our senses, which Descartes believed to be both unreliable and untrustworthy. So he claimed we should doubt everything because of this. In this way, I believe that there will be more qualified and non- defective results. In conclusion, doubt should be viewed as a virtuous idea. Of course, we must use it with caution and wisdom, so as not to abuse one of the many things we have been blessed with, as human beings. As is the case with most matters, we must be careful to balance out our doubt and certainty. Doing this will aid in the betterment of our human nature, and once we learn how to balance the two together, we will be closer to the quintessential being of which we wish to be. Certainty Vs. Doubt free essay sample Everyone has. Having doubt leads you to accomplish more and improve at what you do. Certainty is something that helps you become confident in your actions and beliefs. You cannot become fully certain of things without doubt; it is a part of life. William Lyon Phelps once said, â€Å"If you develop the absolute sense of certainty that powerful beliefs provide, then you can get yourself to accomplish virtually everything†¦Ã¢â‚¬  What Phelps is saying, is that if you think positively you can accomplish anything you want. Yes this is a good trait to have, but is everything accomplished with positive thinking? Doubt is a natural sort that everyone does and it affects everyone in some way. Even the most confident person has some area of doubt in their life, something that causes them to rethink their abilities. Throughout my life I have had many encounters with doubt. In the thirteen years that I have been dancing competitively I have worked hard to become a better dancer. We will write a custom essay sample on Certainty Vs. Doubt or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page If I was certain, at age eleven, that I had become the best I could be then I would not have become the dancer I am today. Having no doubt in life would lead to the confidence that there is no room for improvement or any desire to get better. People would already think they are at the top of everything and that they are the best they can be. Although, if everyone was doubtful of their ideas or abilities, nothing could be improved to make them better. Even now I still have doubt in my skill and that doubt is only there to help me improve even more. Positive thinking is a good thing to have and will lead you to the right places. Even though doubt will be encountered it is natural and will only help improve things even more.